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货币泛滥下房价与物价背驰现象解析

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年08月19日 21:45:18
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U米app下载平台直招龙虎代理客服QQ【3512770174】诚招代理【在线开户网址um996.com】龙虎和龙虎1赔2.211合1赔9.95,定位胆1赔9.95腾讯分分彩,5分,10分彩,最高返水100反9快,最高赔率,正规信誉大平台平台24h提供注册及登录。货币泛滥下房价与物价背驰现象解析

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(贫)(富)(差)(距)(大)(也)(可)(解)(释)(物)(价)(涨)(幅)(不)(大)(原)(因)(
中)(国)(的)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(过)(大)(是)(长)(期)(现)(象)(,这)(恐)(怕)(与)(收)(入)(再)(分)(配)(制)(度)(改)(革)(滞)(后)(有)(关)(。发)(达)(国)(家)(通)(常)(征)(收)(的)(用)(来)(抑)(制)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(过)(大)(的)(三)(大)(税)(:房)(产)(税)(、资)(本)(利)(得)(税)(和)(遗)(产)(税)(,我)(国)(迟)(迟)(没)(有)(征)(收)(。货)(币)(规)(模)(的)(超)(高)(速)(增)(长)(,更)(多)(的)(带)(来)(富)(人)(财)(产)(性)(收)(入)(的)(增)(长)(,对)(低)(收)(入)(群)(体)(的)(收)(入)(增)(长)(贡)(献)(不)(大)(。
为)(何)(货)(币)(超)(发)(会)(导)(致)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(扩)(大)(呢)(?因)(为)(货)(币)(超)(发)(通)(常)(表)(现)(为)(M2增)(速)(与)(名)(义)(GDP增)(速)(之)(差)(扩)(大)(,货)(币)(超)(发)(通)(常)(发)(生)(在)(名)(义)(GDP下)(行)(阶)(段)(,因)(为)(政)(府)(为)(了)(阻)(止)(经)(济)(增)(速)(下)(行)(而)(采)(取)(宽)(松)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(,经)(济)(下)(行)(导)(致)(工)(薪)(阶)(层)(的)(收)(入)(增)(速)(放)(缓)(,但)(富)(人)(阶)(层)(为)(了)(避)(免)(货)(币)(贬)(值)(,便)(更)(多)(地)(去)(配)(置)(各)(类)(资)(产)(,更)(少)(地)(持)(有)(现)(金)(。在)(中)(国)(,房)(房)(是)(大)(家)(首)(选)(的)(配)(置)(资)(产)(。因)(此)(,在)(货)(币)(超)(发)(的)(背)(景)(下)(,富)(人)(财)(产)(性)(收)(入)(的)(增)(长)(幅)(度)(远)(超)(中)(低)(收)(入)(阶)(层)(的)(工)(薪)(收)(入)(涨)(幅)(,故)(贫)(富)(差)(距)(便)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(。
所)(以)(,货)(币)(超)(发)(的)(结)(果)(,最)(大)(的)(可)(能)(是)(收)(入)(差)(距)(进)(一)(步)(扩)(大)(,不)(仅)(中)(国)(如)(此)(,美)(国)(等)(发)(达)(国)(家)(都)(有)(类)(似)(情)(况)(。由)(于)(富)(人)(的)(边)(际)(消)(费)(倾)(向)(远)(低)(于)(穷)(人)(,财)(产)(性)(收)(入)(的)(增)(加)(不)(会)(对)(富)(人)(的)(消)(费)(有)(多)(大)(刺)(激)(。穷)(人)(的)(边)(际)(消)(费)(倾)(向)(虽)(然)(较)(高)(,但)(因)(为)(他)(们)(的)(收)(入)(增)(速)(下)(降)(,故)(消)(费)(的)(增)(速)(也)(呈)(现)(下)(降)(趋)(势)(。
对)(中)(国)(这)(样)(一)(个)(制)(造)(业)(大)(国)(而)(言)(,外)(需)(和)(内)(需)(的)(增)(速)(下)(降)(,必)(然)(导)(致)(产)(能)(过)(剩)(,因)(此)(,PPI已)(经)(连)(续)(50个)(月)(为)(负)(,创)(下)(历)(史)(记)(录)(,这)(也)(就)(是)(CPI难)(以)(起)(来)(的)(原)(因)(。或)(者)(说)(,中)(国)(已)(经)(陷)(入)(流)(动)(性)(陷)(阱)(,M2的)(高)(增)(长)(会)(带)(来)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(,但)(不)(会)(带)(来)(通)(胀)(,从)(历)(史)(看)(,只)(有)(GDP增)(速)(上)(升)(时)(,CPI才)(会)(起)(来)(。
从)(可)(贸)(易)(品)(与)(非)(贸)(易)(品)(角)(度)(解)(释)(高)(房)(价)(与)(低)(物)(价)(
可)(贸)(易)(品)(是)(指)(国)(际)(间)(可)(以)(进)(行)(交)(易)(的)(商)(品)(和)(服)(务)(;所)(谓)(非)(贸)(易)(品)(,是)(指)(不)(能)(在)(两)(国)(间)(进)(行)(交)(易)(的)(产)(品)(,一)(般)(不)(能)(位)(移)(和)(运)(输)(,只)(能)(在)(国)(内)(生)(产)(和)(消)(费)(,通)(常)(包)(括)(建)(筑)(业)(、房)(地)(产)(业)(和)(基)(础)(设)(施)(等)(,更)(多)(的)(是)(在)(服)(务)(业)(中)(。
我)(之)(所)(以)(要)(提)(这)(个)(概)(念)(,是)(因)(为)(货)(币)(流)(通)(往)(往)(是)(受)(限)(的)(,如)(人)(民)(币)(是)(由)(央)(行)(发)(行)(并)(主)(要)(在)(中)(国)(流)(通)(,但)(可)(贸)(易)(品)(则)(可)(以)(在)(全)(球)(流)(通)(。比)(如)(,中)(国)(是)(全)(球)(大)(米)(的)(最)(大)(消)(费)(国)(,但)(同)(时)(也)(是)(最)(大)(的)(进)(口)(国)(,中)(国)(农)(民)(大)(量)(进)(城)(务)(工)(后)(,中)(国)(的)(粮)(价)(没)(有)(因)(此)(而)(大)(涨)(,因)(为)(大)(米)(是)(可)(贸)(易)(品)(,只)(要)(你)(有)(外)(汇)(,就)(可)(以)(大)(量)(进)(口)(,且)(目)(前)(进)(口)(价)(远)(低)(于)(国)(内)(价)(。中)(国)(三)(年)(自)(然)(灾)(害)(时)(之)(所)(以)(饿)(死)(那)(么)(多)(人)(,是)(因)(为)(当)(年)(中)(国)(缺)(外)(汇)(。但)(房)(子)(是)(非)(贸)(易)(品)(,不)(能)(移)(动)(,当)(国)(内)(货)(币)(超)(发)(,房)(价)(大)(幅)(上)(涨)(之)(后)(,供)(给)(却)(没)(有)(相)(应)(地)(像)(生)(产)(家)(电)(一)(样)(大)(量)(增)(加)(,故)(房)(价)(很)(难)(回)(落)(。
这)(些)(年)(来)(,中)(国)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(价)(格)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,导)(致)(中)(国)(部)(分)(产)(业)(外)(迁)(到)(其)(他)(低)(收)(入)(国)(家)(,如)(印)(度)(、越)(南)(、印)(尼)(等)(,使)(得)(中)(国)(出)(口)(结)(构)(中)(,加)(工)(贸)(易)(的)(比)(例)(明)(显)(下)(降)(。所)(以)(,货)(币)(的)(供)(给)(是)(当)(地)(的)(,商)(品)(的)(供)(给)(是)(全)(球)(的)(。当)(中)(国)(劳)(动)(力)(价)(格)(低)(廉)(的)(时)(候)(,大)(量)(商)(品)(出)(口)(美)(国)(,美)(国)(就)(指)(责)(中)(国)(输)(出)(通)(缩)(。当)(中)(国)(的)(劳)(动)(力)(价)(格)(上)(升)(后)(,曾)(经)(是)(农)(业)(大)(国)(的)(中)(国)(便)(大)(量)(进)(口)(农)(产)(品)(,这)(就)(使)(得)(中)(国)(的)(CPI很)(难)(大)(涨)(,因)(为)(中)(国)(CPI中)(,农)(产)(品)(的)(权)(重)(占)(比)(较)(高)(。
不)(过)(,CPI中)(权)(重)(偏)(低)(的)(服)(务)(价)(格)(却)(在)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,因)(为)(很)(多)(服)(务)(属)(于)(非)(贸)(易)(品)(,或)(称)(为)(限)(制)(性)(贸)(易)(品)(,如)(保)(姆)(的)(价)(格)(这)(些)(年)(大)(幅)(上)(升)(,而)(中)(国)(又)(不)(允)(许)(如)(印)(度)(等)(国)(的)(家)(政)(服)(务)(业)(向)(中)(国)(大)(量)(输)(出)(劳)(务)(工)(。因)(此)(,更)(确)(切)(地)(说)(,中)(国)(的)(通)(缩)(是)(商)(品)(通)(缩)(,但)(服)(务)(价)(格)(,包)(括)(各)(类)(租)(金)(等)(价)(格)(却)(是)(在)(通)(胀)(。
2015年)(我)(国)(的)(CPI为)(1.4%,今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(上)(涨)(至)(2.1%,这)(还)(是)(在)(统)(计)(局)(把)(农)(产)(品)(等)(权)(重)(下)(调)(后)(统)(计)(的)(结)(果)(。所)(以)(,今)(天)(这)(个)(时)(候)(说)(中)(国)(在)(走)(向)(通)(缩)(,似)(乎)(不)(是)(太)(准)(确)(,比)(较)(CPI比)(去)(年)(上)(涨)(了)(0.7个)(百)(分)(点)(。同)(样)(道)(理)(,中)(国)(的)(房)(价)(也)(不)(再)(呈)(现)(普)(涨)(格)(局)(,去)(年)(主)(要)(是)(一)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(上)(涨)(,今)(年)(则)(是)(一)(二)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(同)(步)(上)(涨)(,但)(三)(四)(线)(城)(市)(房)(价)(没)(有)(涨)(多)(少)(。
既)(然)(通)(缩)(和)(楼)(市)(的)(牛)(市)(都)(是)(结)(构)(性)(的)(,因)(此)(,物)(价)(与)(房)(价)(的)(背)(驰)(现)(象)(也)(不)(能)(一)(概)(而)(论)(。也)(就)(是)(说)(,通)(缩)(是)(“不)(完)(全)(通)(缩)(”,准)(确)(的)(表)(达)(应)(该)(是)(“商)(品)(通)(胀)(、服)(务)(通)(胀)(”;同)(时)(,房)(价)(不)(败)(的)(神)(话)(也)(要)(打)(折)(扣)(,东)(北)(、西)(北)(的)(房)(价)(就)(很)(疲)(弱)(。就)(像)(股)(市)(一)(样)(,普)(涨)(型)(的)(牛)(市)(叫)(大)(牛)(市)(,结)(构)(性)(牛)(市)(则)(可)(能)(是)(牛)(市)(的)(尾)(巴)(。
结)(构)(性)(“房)(胀)(”与)(“物)(缩)(”下)(的)(投)(资)(建)(议)(
本)(来)(这)(篇)(文)(章)(写)(到)(这)(里)(就)(该)(结)(束)(了)(,但)(有)(读)(者)(建)(议)(我)(每)(次)(写)(宏)(观)(分)(析)(后)(最)(好)(写)(点)(对)(投)(资)(或)(资)(产)(配)(置)(的)(建)(议)(。因)(此)(,我)(就)(表)(达)(一)(下)(“仅)(供)(参)(考)(,风)(险)(自)(负)(”的)(建)(议)(。
首)(先)(,就)(物)(价)(的)(走)(势)(而)(言)(,我)(觉)(得)(,既)(然)(普)(通)(商)(品)(价)(格)(在)(下)(跌)(,标)(志)(着)(传)(统)(产)(业)(正)(在)(走)(向)(衰)(落)(,投)(资)(要)(慎)(重)(,但)(并)(购)(重)(组)(的)(机)(会)(较)(大)(。同)(时)(,服)(务)(价)(格)(在)(上)(涨)(,说)(明)(中)(国)(经)(济)(的)(亮)(点)(在)(服)(务)(消)(费)(,文)(化)(教)(育)(、娱)(乐)(体)(育)(、医)(疗)(卫)(生)(、养)(老)(保)(健)(等)(服)(务)(业)(的)(发)(展)(空)(间)(很)(大)(。
其)(次)(,目)(前)(房)(产)(投)(资)(是)(否)(还)(是)(一)(个)(好)(时)(机)(?我)(认)(为)(不)(是)(。如)(前)(所)(述)(,2000-2010年)(这)(十)(年)(间)(闭)(着)(眼)(睛)(买)(房)(子)(,收)(益)(率)(都)(能)(跑)(赢)(M2(增)(加)(4.6倍)(),过)(去)(五)(年)(中)(国)(房)(价)(总)(体)(没)(有)(跑)(赢)(M2(增)(加)(100%),而)(且)(,据)(我)(们)(的)(房)(地)(产)(首)(席)(研)(究)(员)(说)(,唯)(一)(跑)(赢)(的)(只)(有)(深)(圳)(,勉)(强)(跑)(赢)(的)(只)(有)(厦)(门)(。当)(然)(,小)(区)(块)(结)(构)(性)(跑)(赢)(的)(总)(是)(很)(多)(,如)(苏)(州)(的)(高)(新)(园)(区)(,保)(定)(白)(洋)(淀)(等)(的)(涨)(幅)(远)(远)(超)(过)(100%等)(。但)(即)(便)(是)(这)(么)(差)(劲)(的)(股)(市)(,过)(去)(五)(年)(涨)(幅)(超)(过)(10倍)(的)(股)(票)(也)(为)(数)(不)(少)(,所)(以)(,不)(管)(是)(今)(天)(的)(股)(市)(还)(是)(今)(天)(的)(楼)(市)(,都)(需)(要)(考)(验)(你)(的)(眼)(力)(。
良)(好)(的)(投)(资)(时)(机)(,应)(该)(是)(选)(择)(在)(房)(价)(还)(在)(徘)(徊)(或)(刚)(刚)(启)(动)(的)(时)(候)(,目)(前)(投)(资)(房)(地)(产)(,这)(就)(叫)(跟)(风)(了)(。对)(于)(这)(样)(一)(个)(流)(动)(性)(起)(伏)(极)(大)(的)(市)(场)(,对)(于)(一)(个)(90后)(购)(房)(需)(求)(将)(大)(幅)(回)(落)(的)(市)(场)(,对)(于)(一)(个)(要)(对)(多)(套)(房)(征)(收)(房)(产)(税)(的)(市)(场)(,面)(对)(一)(个)(老)(年)(人)(纸)(尿)(裤)(的)(消)(费)(量)(将)(超)(过)(婴)(儿)(的)(人)(口)(结)(构)(,我)(们)(应)(该)(关)(注)(的)(不)(是)(房)(地)(产)(投)(资)(者)(过)(去)(的)(辉)(煌)(业)(绩)(,而)(是)(未)(来)(5-10年)(的)(房)(价)(溃)(败)(模)(拟)(图)(。
第)(三)(,在)(这)(个)(货)(币)(不)(断)(超)(发)(、长)(期)(超)(发)(的)(时)(代)(,通)(缩)(也)(只)(是)(阶)(段)(性)(的)(,不)(可)(能)(神)(话)(般)(地)(延)(续)(下)(去)(。即)(便)(是)(今)(年)(,黄)(金)(、铝)(、白)(银)(、焦)(煤)(、棉)(花)(、豆)(粕)(等)(不)(少)(大)(宗)(商)(品)(的)(价)(格)(也)(出)(现)(了)(大)(小)(不)(等)(的)(涨)(幅)(。未)(来)(金)(融)(风)(险)(的)(爆)(发)(可)(能)(性)(在)(增)(加)(而)(不)(是)(在)(缩)(减)(,全)(球)(的)(债)(务)(规)(模)(在)(继)(续)(膨)(胀)(,迄)(今)(没)(有)(一)(个)(主)(要)(经)(济)(体)(已)(经)(摆)(脱)(了)(危)(机)(。因)(此)(,投)(资)(应)(该)(从)(避)(险)(的)(角)(度)(去)(考)(虑)(,寻)(找)(危)(机)(发)(生)(时)(可)(以)(保)(值)(的)(实)(物)(资)(产)(。
延)(伸)(阅)(读)(:
矬)(子)(里)(拔)(将)(军)(——全)(球)(经)(济)(注)(水)(时)(代)(的)(投)(资)(逻)(辑)(
黄)(金)(价)(格)(上)(涨)(或)(将)(经)(历)(三)(大)(阶)(段)(
房)(价)(如)(何)(看)(——从)(人)(口)(现)(象)(到)(货)(币)(现)(象)(
(转)(载)(请)(注)(明)(出)(处)(:微)(信)(公)(众)(号)(lixunlei0722)
)


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