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美联储缩表狂想曲:资本重新分流

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年09月21日 02:45:16
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(图)(:美)(国)(GDP季)(率)(
宏)(观)(经)(济)(状)(况)(参)(考)(GDP。从)(GDP数)(据)(来)(看)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(整)(体)(复)(苏)(,但)(过)(程)(曲)(折)(。近)(期)(发)(布)(的)(美)(国)(二)(季)(度)(GDP年)(化)(季)(率)(为)(2.6%,不)(及)(预)(期)(的)(2.7%,但)(此)(前)(美)(国)(GDP已)(经)(有)(超)(过)(一)(年)(超)(预)(期)(表)(现)(,极)(大)(提)(振)(了)(美)(国)(经)(济)(复)(苏)(信)(心)(。
图)(:美)(国)(未)(季)(调)(CPI年)(率)(
再)(看)(CPI,通)(胀)(水)(平)(。美)(联)(储)(启)(动)(加)(息)(后)(,CPI数)(据)(多)(符)(合)(市)(场)(预)(期)(,且)(在)(2%上)(下)(运)(行)(。美)(联)(储)(要)(调)(整)(流)(动)(性)(,通)(胀)(稳)(定)(很)(重)(要)(,今)(年)(年)(初)(冒)(头)(逼)(近)(3%的)(CPI现)(在)(乖)(乖)(回)(到)(美)(联)(储)(确)(定)(的)(2%通)(胀)(目)(标)(下)(方)(。目)(前)(美)(国)(CPI已)(经)(连)(续)(四)(个)(月)(低)(于)(预)(期)(,美)(联)(储)(收)(紧)(流)(动)(性)(正)(影)(响)(消)(费)(积)(极)(性)(,且)(减)(弱)(了)(经)(济)(活)(力)(。
图)(:美)(国)(失)(业)(率)(
就)(业)(看)(非)(农)(数)(据)(和)(失)(业)(率)(。非)(农)(数)(据)(是)(短)(期)(投)(资)(的)(核)(心)(参)(考)(数)(据)(,但)(看)(美)(国)(就)(业)(市)(场)(整)(体)(变)(化)(,还)(要)(看)(失)(业)(率)(。从)(2015年)(至)(今)(,美)(国)(失)(业)(率)(下)(行)(趋)(势)(未)(变)(,今)(年)(失)(业)(率)(已)(跌)(破)(4.5%,就)(业)(形)(势)(持)(续)(改)(善)(。
整)(体)(上)(,美)(国)(经)(济)(适)(度)(增)(长)(,就)(业)(保)(持)(稳)(健)(,预)(计)(通)(胀)(依)(然)(可)(控)(,即)(经)(济)(面)(为)(美)(联)(储)(政)(策)(调)(整)(留)(有)(空)(间)(,加)(息)(暂)(停)(之)(后)(缩)(表)(预)(期)(升)(温)(在)(情)(理)(之)(中)(。
缩)(表)(预)(期)(升)(温)(,市)(场)(有)(山)(雨)(欲)(来)(的)(紧)(张)(感)(。但)(缩)(表)(对)(美)(国)(经)(济)(和)(市)(场)(冲)(击)(不)(会)(小)(,美)(联)(储)(只)(会)(循)(序)(渐)(进)(,目)(前)(的)(缩)(表)(预)(期)(可)(能)(仍)(是)(美)(联)(储)(引)(导)(市)(场)(情)(绪)(的)(把)(戏)(。撇)(开)(规)(模)(步)(骤)(等)(细)(节)(,假)(设)(美)(联)(储)(真)(的)(缩)(表)(,市)(场)(如)(何)(反)(应)(?
图)(:美)(元)(指)(数)(周)(线)(
美)(元)(东)(山)(再)(起)(?2015年)(启)(动)(加)(息)(曾)(推)(动)(美)(指)(出)(现)(小)(高)(潮)(,但)(随)(后)(美)(国)(GDP逐)(步)(走)(低)(,美)(元)(回)(调)(。2016年)(下)(半)(年)(特)(朗)(普)(效)(应)(、货)(币)(紧)(缩)(预)(期)(和)(美)(股)(牛)(市)(重)(新)(提)(振)(美)(元)(,美)(指)(今)(年)(年)(初)(突)(破)(103。但)(非)(美)(货)(币)(回)(升)(对)(美)(元)(形)(成)(压)(力)(,美)(指)(再)(度)(走)(低)(。对)(比)(加)(息)(,若)(美)(联)(储)(缩)(表)(,在)(启)(动)(点)(前)(后)(美)(元)(大)(涨)(是)(大)(概)(率)(事)(件)(,但)(缩)(表)(考)(验)(经)(济)(,GDP会)(否)(出)(现)(类)(似)(加)(息)(之)(后)(的)(增)(长)(乏)(力)(?长)(线)(美)(元)(具)(有)(较)(大)(不)(确)(定)(性)(。
再)(者)(流)(动)(性)(收)(紧)(将)(冷)(却)(投)(资)(热)(情)(,美)(股)(牛)(市)(或)(难)(以)(为)(继)(。充)(沛)(的)(流)(动)(性)(是)(美)(股)(收)(益)(增)(长)(的)(血)(液)(,缩)(表)(预)(期)(升)(温)(之)(后)(,唱)(空)(美)(股)(声)(音)(响)(起)(。美)(银)(美)(林)(策)(略)(师)(预)(计)(,标)(普)(500指)(数)(2017年)(增)(速)(或)(放)(缓)(至)(8%,2018年)(进)(一)(步)(放)(缓)(至)(5%。此)(外)(,“新)(债)(王)(”拉)(克)(预)(计)(,他)(的)(标)(普)(500指)(数)(卖)(空)(期)(权)(将)(带)(来)(400%的)(回)(报)(。如)(果)(美)(联)(储)(启)(动)(缩)(表)(,美)(股)(将)(面)(临)(更)(大)(看)(空)(压)(力)(。
相)(信)(美)(联)(储)(会)(在)(万)(事)(俱)(备)(后)(祭)(出)(缩)(表)(大)(杀)(器)(,若)(美)(联)(储)(高)(估)(市)(场)(的)(承)(受)(力)(,缩)(表)(成)(为)(“灰)(犀)(牛)(”,高)(风)(险)(下)(资)(本)(会)(流)(向)(哪)(里)(?笔)(者)(认)(为)(欧)(洲)(和)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(各)(有)(魅)(力)(。
图)(:美)(国)(和)(欧)(元)(区)(GDP对)(比)(
欧)(洲)(是)(第)(一)(目)(的)(地)(。欧)(元)(区)(宏)(观)(经)(济)(状)(况)(良)(好)(,上)(半)(年)(复)(苏)(势)(头)(甚)(至)(好)(于)(美)(国)(,地)(区)(内)(通)(胀)(保)(持)(在)(可)(控)(水)(平)(,市)(场)(已)(经)(消)(化)(英)(国)(脱)(欧)(影)(响)(,在)(欧)(债)(危)(机)(期)(间)(流)(出)(的)(资)(本)(可)(能)(回)(流)(欧)(元)(区)(。当)(然)(,欧)(元)(区)(对)(缩)(表)(之)(后)(流)(出)(美)(国)(的)(资)(本)(有)(多)(大)(吸)(引)(力)(,还)(需)(要)(看)(欧)(洲)(央)(行)(的)(货)(币)(政)(策)(。
第)(二)(个)(是)(中)(国)(在)(内)(的)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(。2012年)(以)(来)(,资)(本)(对)(新)(兴)(经)(济)(体)(投)(资)(热)(情)(降)(低)(,到)(2016年)(,资)(本)(从)(中)(国)(流)(出)(速)(度)(明)(显)(放)(缓)(。今)(年)(上)(半)(年)(,我)(国)(外)(汇)(储)(备)(连)(续)(6个)(月)(超)(过)(3万)(亿)(,资)(本)(流)(出)(压)(力)(进)(一)(步)(缓)(解)(,国)(内)(A股)(隐)(形)(牛)(市)(或)(是)(原)(因)(之)(一)(。A股)(年)(内)(“熊)(冠)(全)(球)(”,但)(供)(应)(侧)(改)(革)(催)(生)(了)(钢)(铁)(、煤)(炭)(、化)(工)(原)(料)(和)(有)(色)(金)(属)(等)(一)(批)(强)(势)(板)(块)(,构)(成)(A股)(隐)(形)(牛)(市)(,吸)(引)(资)(金)(涌)(入)(。国)(内)(去)(产)(能)(仍)(在)(继)(续)(,若)(美)(联)(储)(启)(动)(缩)(表)(,资)(金)(可)(能)(回)(流)(,深)(挖)(A股)(隐)(形)(牛)(市)(机)(会)(。
美)(联)(储)(是)(否)(缩)(表)(尚)(未)(可)(知)(,但)(收)(紧)(流)(动)(性)(、恢)(复)(货)(币)(供)(应)(常)(态)(是)(个)(大)(趋)(势)(,也)(是)(资)(本)(在)(全)(球)(重)(新)(分)(配)(的)(重)(大)(时)(机)(。但)(要)(想)(获)(得)(资)(本)(青)(睐)(,还)(需)(A股)(自)(己)(争)(气)(!
作)(者)(:龙)(缘)(
编)(辑)(:张)(骏)(芬)(、徐)(冰)(莹)(返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(
责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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